Effective sellable float

How it is calculated

Start with TGE float and subtract the liquidity pool allocation. From the remainder, identify which tranches carry positive return at TGE price.

A private round at $0.05 on a $0.10 TGE price holds 100% upside and is a likely seller. A public sale at $0.09 on the same $0.10 price holds only 11% upside and is a weaker candidate. Weight each tranche by estimated sell propensity and sum the result.

Design consequence

Sizing the pool against headline float wastes capital; sizing against effective sellable float gives the precise depth target. If effective sellable float is $3M and your pool holds $6M in depth at the current price band, you have comfortable cushion. If depth is $1.5M, the first motivated seller moves the price materially.

Example

A project with a 12% TGE float on an $80M FDV has $9.6M headline float. The liquidity pool accounts for 4%, leaving $6.4M. Of that, 3% came from private rounds at a 70% discount, yielding roughly $2.4M of highly motivated sellers. The effective sellable float is about $2.4M, not $9.6M, and liquidity planning should be built around that number.

Common mistake

Teams conflate circulating supply with sell pressure. Every report that lumps locked liquidity, full-price buyers, and deeply discounted early investors into one float number obscures the only figure that matters on day one.