Effective sellable float

Three subtractions, and only two of them are arithmetic

Start from TGE float, the unlocked share of supply at the moment trading opens. Tokenomist defines float as the ratio of circulating, freely tradeable supply to total or maximum supply, and notes that a low float makes price more sensitive to large buy or sell orders.¹ Effective sellable float takes that ratio and removes what cannot or will not be offered.

First out are the pool tokens. They are the counterparty to selling, not a participant in it, and when a holder exits the pool's token balance rises. Second is market maker inventory, which sits under a two sided quoting obligation rather than an instruction to exit. Both come straight off the allocation table, so any analyst can reproduce them.

The third subtraction is different in kind. It asks which unlocked holders have a reason to sell at the opening price, which is a judgement about behaviour rather than a line in a spreadsheet. Keep it in a separate column from the first two. One is arithmetic you can defend by pointing at the contract, the other is an assumption you have to argue for.

Where TGE float stops and this number starts

TGE float answers a supply question: what is unlocked when trading opens. Effective sellable float answers a behaviour question: of that unlocked supply, how much is likely to be offered into the book. Our TGE float entry decomposes the headline percentage into its buckets. This one carries the weighting and the depth comparison that follow.

Traditional finance draws the line in the same place and stops short of the behavioural step, which is worth knowing before you go looking for a benchmark. Rule 405 under the Securities Act computes an issuer's public float from voting and non voting common equity held by non affiliates, valued at the price the equity last sold at.³ The subtraction is by holder category. Nothing in it asks whether the holder wants to sell, and no crypto tracker asks either, which is why this number is one you build rather than one you look up.

Cost basis decides who sells first

A private round priced at $0.05 into a $0.10 open is 100% ahead before it does anything. A public round priced at $0.09 into the same open is 11% ahead. Identical tokens, identical unlock, and completely different reasons to hit a bid in the first hour.

Put it through a full example. A project with a 12% TGE float on an $80,000,000 fully diluted valuation carries $9,600,000 of headline float. The liquidity pool holds 4% of supply, so $3,200,000 comes out at once, and market maker inventory takes out more. Of the roughly $6,400,000 left, three points of supply, $2,400,000, came from a private round bought at a 70% discount. Weight the near cost tranches low and the number you plan against is about $2,400,000, not $9,600,000.

BitGo's framing of a launch is the same idea from the operations side: what defines a TGE is how much supply enters the market, how much stays locked, and when future supply becomes available.² Effective sellable float is the first of those three read for intent rather than for size.

What the ratio changes

Once you have the number, the decision is a ratio: sellable float against quote side depth at the opening price. Our initial DEX offering entry runs that arithmetic through a constant product pool step by step, and the result is unforgiving in both directions.

There are four honest responses when the ratio is bad. Sell less in the round. Seed more depth. Vest the discounted tranche so it is not sellable on day one. Or accept the profile deliberately, in writing, because a team that has read the number and chosen anyway has still made a decision. Every one of those is cheaper before signatures than after.

The limits of the number

This is a modelled estimate, not a measurement, and it should be presented that way internally. Publish the propensity weights you used, run the calculation as a range rather than a point, and recompute it at every unlock date rather than once before launch.

None of this predicts what any token's price will do, and none of it is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. Float is a design parameter, and getting it right prevents an avoidable mess in week one. What the market pays after that depends on whether the business under the token is worth owning.